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By A/Rahman Alsayed Monday 4 May 2009 The role of regional institutions in regional peace can not be underestimated, especially if such institutions are mandated and empowered to act as regional governments on specific affairs...In the long-term a sub-regional confederation will have a lasting effect in favour of peace and stability in the conflict ridden Horn of Africa. Such a confederation can be developed as a strategic option for peace and prosperity between Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan with a possibility of including Kenya. -------------------- Somalia at Cross-Roads By A/Rahman Alsayed 1 May 2009 Somalia achieved a degree of peace and stability in 2006 under the administration of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. The UIC rule lasted for six months preceding the Ethiopian offensive that disrupted the UIC effort. The Ethiopian regime committed an historic error and blunder by invading the country and attempting to install an alternative regime of their choice, which resulted in more instability (this time affecting the vital water-ways through piracy) that resulted in thousands of death and displacement in the country. After two years the UIC leader, Sheikh Sharif, is back as president with even more legitimacy than he had in 2006. The recent International Donors’ meeting in Brussels is an indication of support for the new president at the international level. Although Ethiopia has yet to accept responsibility for the last two years’ chaos and thus apologise, the return of Sheikh Sharif is indeed a positive step that will continue the previously disrupted process of peace from where it had stopped in December 2006. However, the task of restoring peace and stability will not be an easy one. But there is optimism again especially when there is no better option except to put the country back on track. In my opinion any effort to reinstate Somalia to its natural place as a stable state (with good governance institutions, rule of law and democracy) will require the following:- A United Centre Forming a united centre that balances the power and interest arrangement with a decentralised government that accommodates the reality that has taken root as a result of the civil war as well as Somalia’s complex clan politics. Some of the talks in the international forums have been about assisting Somalia to strengthen its security forces. In general, the country is often seen in this context, i.e. ‘security’ either by helping one group or the other, or by ill-calculated foreign invasion ( America, Ethiopia). Somali security and stability can be better pursued by having a system of governance that takes into account the deep-rooted clan rivalry. To this end, Sheikh Sharif’s government may pursue implementing a federal system of governance based on a bicameral parliamentary democracy. The lower house of such a system would accommodate directly elected representatives of the people while the upper house would be composed of clan and religious leaders, tribal elders, representatives of special interest groups such as minorities and women. As a parliamentary democracy both houses would elect the executive body of the government that would reflect “collective leadership”. This way the risk of falling into a clan based majoritarian tyranny would be minimised and the country would be ruled by consensus and coalition between the different cleavages. At the local level a clan rule has already taken root in the form of “self-rule”. Somali regions such as Somali Land and Punt Land might have even exceeded in stabilising their respective regions and producing effective governance institutions. It will therefore be beneficial to constitutionally endorse the existing self-rule (legitimisation) and defining the centre-periphery relationship. International and Regional actors can pursue their interests in ‘security’ by supporting inclusive governance in the country and not just by pumping hard currency on security and peace keeping forces. The Ethiopian Challenge At the regional level, the biggest challenge to Somalia is Ethiopia. Ethiopia will always remain weary of Somali capacity and strength until it comes to mutually acceptable terms with its occupation of Western Somalia (The Ogaden). This region, which was given to Ethiopia by the British in 1954 has remained an issue of contention between the two neighbouring countries. It is also assumed that the Ogaden is rich with natural gas and oil, which may increase the tension between the two neighbours in future. Added to this is that the Ethiopian elite’s thinking is still dominated by sectarian chauvinism, and not by the multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation that Ethiopia’s social and cultural diversity attests to. That said, In the short and medium term, it will be important for regional peace and security if Somali nationalists focus on Somalia proper by accepting the post-colonial reality in regard to Western Somalia (under Ethiopia) and the Northern Frontier District (NFD under Kenya). This does not mean Somalis and all peace-loving individuals and nations should not support ethnic Somalis’ rights in those two neighbouring countries. They can do so within the framework of promoting Ethiopian & Kenyan Somali citizens’ legitimate rights within Ethiopia and Kenya respectively. Horn Confederation for Sustainable Peace It is necessary to convince Somalia’s neighbours of the need to respect Somalia’s sovereignty. Any support for Somalia’s stability should be directed through IGAD (Inter-Governmental Authority for Development) once the membership of this potentially very important institution is made inclusive and its decisions consensual. The role of regional institutions in regional peace can not be underestimated, especially if such institutions are mandated and empowered to act as regional governments on specific affairs. It is also the types of IGAD that can eventually become a solid manifestation of regional integration and confederation. In the long-term a sub-regional confederation will have a lasting effect in favour of peace and stability in the conflict ridden Horn of Africa. Such a confederation can be developed as a strategic option for peace and prosperity between Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan with a possibility of including Kenya. May peace and stability prevail in Somalia and the Horn of Africa! Happy May Day!
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