Opinion piece on Obama's victory (6 November 2008)
By Mohiuddin Ahmed
"I anticipate some shift in US policy under Obama administration.
US administration may replace the concept of unilateralism (going for unilateral action or forcing allies to rally behind, as happened in Iraq war) by multilateralism (more dialogue with Europe, as well as other strategic allies like China and India). This has already been indicated by his desire to have unconditinal dialogue with some 'foes' in the international theatre.
Obama has already expressed his strong desire to intervene in the tribal areas of Pakistan and to shift emphasis from Iraq to Afghanistan. This has two connotations. First, there is a ray of hope that the middle-east crisis would be resolved by pursuing a policy in Iraq similar to that of Vietnam in the mid-seventies; and facilitating a serious Palestine-Israel dialogue.
Secondly, there is a danger that the 'war on terror' will be shifted to South Asia, focusing on Afghanistan and Pakistan. India may also capitalise it in Kashmir.
Much depends on how South Asian leaders behave. Already India has emerged as a regional super power and is having high level collaboraton with the US administration in the field of military technology. The recent US-India deal on nuclear collaboration has strengthened the Indian ego to become a major partner of the US administration in Asia. This may change the status quo in the region and damage the balance of power in South Asia. Obama administration is likely to consolidate this new relationship, as India had always 'gained' from the US administration run by a 'Democratic' president.
In early days, countries in the south often looked at the USSR as a breathing space. After the collapse of the USSR and the apparent autonomous development in Europe (particularly France, Germany and UK under Gordon Brown) defying US unilateralism, countries in the south may expect Europe to stand as a buffer between them and the USA. Europe should understand this psychology of the Asian South.
Whatever US did under the Bush administration and is likely to continue under Obama regime is to retain and continue military and economic supremacy. Invasion of Iraq or handling of Venezuela or Russia is all part of this grand strategy. Rhetoric like 'America is the Best' or 'God bless America' or 'we have to uphold American values' are just manifestations of US might and chauvinism of which the US president is the custodian.
Capitalism is still vibrant and growing and is capable of correcting its flaws. Obama administration will try to drag USA out of the current crisis by putting a 'humane face' on it. This may help temporarily in wooing the 'American poor'. However, this may occur at the cost of the poor elsewhere.
Individuals don't matter much in history. Obama won't be able to change USA much, as he has to fit within the establishment, even if he has intention to change. The prosperity in the US and in Europe (as well as in small enclaves in the countries of the south) overwhelmingly depends on certain conditions and terms of trade that favours them. Whatever prosperity trickles down to the South, we have to be complacent with that in the near future."
