Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peacebuilding, refugee protection, and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to the movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of universities, research organisations, civil society, and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and across Africa. The Situation Reports can be found here. To receive the situation report in your e-mail, click here. You can unsubscribe at any moment through the link at the bottom of each e-mail.
Situation in Sudan (per 31 October)
- The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) intensified its offensive with airstrikes and ground operations across multiple regions in recent days after violent reprisals by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have resulted in mass civilian casualties and severe human rights abuses, especially in the Al Jazira state.
- Evidence shows women committed suicide after being raped by RSF fighters amid intensified violence and attacks on civilians in Al-Jazira last week. It has been reported that women are also taking their lives in fear of being raped by the RSF fighters.
- While RSF denies accusations of sexual abuse, activists have documented widespread sexual violence.
- Internal displacement in Sudan hit the 11 million mark, according to IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix. Internally displaced people (IDPs) are being sheltered in host communities, IDP camps, schools or public buildings, and around 349 thousand IDPs are residing in open areas.
- Over 53% of IDPs are children under 18 years of age, while children younger than 5 years constitute 27% of total IDP population which is more than 2.8 million babies, toddlers and preschoolers.
- In Al Jazirah state, 119,000 people have been displaced since 20 October, seeking refuge in neighbouring states after the fighting escalated between RSF and SAF.
Situation in Ethiopia (per 31 October)
- Over 700 families from Oromia currently residing in the Bakelo IDP camp in Amhara face severe shortages after food aid was stopped due to their refusal to return to the Oromia region, citing security concerns. These families are not recognized as displaced persons anymore, according to an IDP witness.
- Efforts to return IDPs from Amhara to Oromia region are ongoing but far below target, with only a small fraction successfully repatriated so far.
- International Finance Corporation (IFC) is considering a $20 million financial package to Abyssinia Group of Industries (AGI), a leading steel manufacturer in Ethiopia and East Africa in support of expansion and sustainability initiatives.
- If approved, the IFC package would support procurement of new machinery and furnaces in Ethiopia.
Regional Situation (per 31 October)
- Somalia has declared an Ethiopian diplomat, Ali Mohamed Adan, working in Ethiopian Embassy in Mogadishu, a persona non grata, accusing him of carrying out “activities incompatible with his diplomatic role”, according to a statement by the Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
- Adan has been given a 72-hour notice to leave Somalia. In a similar move earlier this year, Somalia expelled Ethiopia’s Ambassador Muktar Mohamed Ware.
- Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, reportedly invited Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro), candidate in the 2024 Somaliland presidential election for the Waddani Party, to Addis Ababa to discuss his support for the MoU between Ethiopia and Somalia.
- Abdirahman reportedly stated that he was not shown the MoU yet and that before making any commitments, he wants to see it, discuss it with his party first, and then take it to parliament.
- Somaliland President, Muse Bihi Abdi, reaffirmed that Somaliland will uphold its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreement with Ethiopia, granting it sea access in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland, despite Somalia’s opposition and international pressure.
International Situation (per 31 October)
- The UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution on the transition of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) to the UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia with the formal start of the transitional process on 1 November ending after two years on 31 October 2026.
- The objectives of the transitional mission are to support state-building activities, promote human rights, as well as the gradual transfer of individual tasks to the Somali government.
- Tom Periello, US Special Envoy for Sudan, is travelling to Kenya, Uganda, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt from 30 October to hold discussions on Sudan’s conflict with Sudanese civil society leaders as well as diplomats from the host countries.
- There are reports of an increase in human trafficking across the Red Sea to Yemen. This has reportedly potentially been triggered by a recruitment campaign by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), particularly targeting ethnic minorities.
- Young people are arrested on some pretext, and then offered a job in the Ethiopian security apparatus or risk prosecution; this ends up being a job in the military. Families are also reportedly being pressured to conscript one person of their family, or risk losing benefits such as fertilisers.
Refugee and Migration Situation (per 31 October)
- An EU-funded maritime rescue coordination centre in Libya which aims to carry out operations in the Mediterranean sea is close to being opened after several years of delays. The opening of the centre is in line with the EU’s strategy to curb migration to Europe by managing rescues offshore.
- Egypt plans to take over refugee registrations which have been under the UNHCR’s mandate for many years. Egypt is in a process of adopting a law on refugees and asylum seekers amid criticism for mass arrests and deportations of Sudanese refugees.
- The European Commission declined to release findings from an investigation of the human rights situation in Tunisia conducted before signing a controversial EU-Tunisia migration deal, according to EU Ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly. She urged the EU Commission to publish results on its website.
- The EU Commission “completed a risk management exercise for Tunisia” before signing the migration deal, even though it previously claimed that there was no need to carry out impact assessment.
- 12 Egyptian refugees and migrants died after their boat capsized off Libya’s coast trying to cross the sea to Europe on Monday evening. With 13 persons on board, only one survived.
- Italian judge, Silvia Albano, who last week ruled that 12 asylum seekers should be returned from Albania’s detention centres back to Italy, has been receiving death threats and filed a judicial complaint to investigate perpetrators behind the messages.
Links of interest
Sudan army continues offensive following savage RSF reprisal attacks
Women raped in war-hit Sudan die by suicide, activists say
DTM Sudan Mobility Update (10)
Sudan clashes displace over 119,000, aid access remains critical
News: Over 700 families at Bakelo Camp in Amhara region struggle as aid runs dry
Bihi: Somaliland Sea Access MoU with Ethiopia stands, nothing has changed
Special Envoy for Sudan Perriello Travels to Kenya, Uganda, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
After years of delays, Libya’s EU-funded rescue centre set to become operational
Egypt to register refugees itself, instead of relying on UN agency
EU refuses to publish findings of Tunisia human rights inquiry
Boat carrying Egyptian migrants to Europe capsizes off Libyan coast, killing 12
Italian judge gets ‘death threats’ over Albania centers case
Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.