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Situation in Tigray (per 4 November)
- A new three-volume book series documenting the 2020-2022 Tigray War was released last week by the Langaa RPCIG publishers, commemorating the fourth anniversary of the start of the two-year war in Tigray.
- The books are a collection of 40 chapters of academic research, a collaboration between Ethiopian and European researchers.
- The research documents atrocities committed against the civilian population in Tigray, including massacres, sexual violence, destruction of medical facilities, and destruction of religious and cultural heritage.
- While the atrocities were perpetrated during a communications blackout and siege, the involvement of Eritrea was denied.
- The books reveal how the involvement of Eritrea in the war was systematic and deliberate, evidencing significant Eritrean involvement already during the three year period leading up to the war.
- The research reveals a secret peace plan mediated by a negotiator from Israel, who proposed a peace plan between Eritrea and Ethiopia as early as 2017, in which Ethiopia would be given access to the Assab port, in exchange for lifting of UN sanctions and EU road infrastructure programmes.
- The research found that the Tigray regional government rejected the plan at the end of 2017, after which President Isayas Afewerki from Eritrea announced the “Game Over, Woyane” threat to the region.
- Addressing the 2nd anniversary of the CoH agreement, the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) stressed the need for resolving issues of territorial disputes and foreign force withdrawals.
- The territorial disputes reference Eritrean occupation of parts of the Tigray region.
- The TIRA President Getachew Reda acknowledged progress in stopping active war but emphasised that the full implementation of the CoH agreement remains crucial.
- The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party also urged the full implementation of the CoH agreement, raising concerns over the occupied territories of the Tigray region, the dire conditions faced by displaced Tigrayans, as well as the limited restorations of services.
Situation in Ethiopia (per 4 November)
- Over 45 people were killed in an ambush by armed groups in the North Shewa Zone, in the Oromia region, on Friday amid a growing conflict between Ethiopian federal forces and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Wacale district administrator, Nigussie Koru, was among the victims that were shot dead.
- The North Shewa Zone Prosperity Party Office accused the OLA of carrying out the incident which is yet to be verified. The OLA has not issued any public statement.
- Ongoing disruptions to phone and internet services across the Oromia region have been reported by residents amid an intensified conflict between government forces and the OLA.
- In an address to the House of People’s Representatives (HoPR), the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated that the federal government had continued peace talks with some members of armed groups operating in Amhara and Oromia even though they did not yield concrete outcomes.
- The speech comes amid intensified fighting between government forces and Fano militia which resulted in many civilian casualties over the past weeks.
Situation in Sudan (per 4 November)
- General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council, appointed a new foreign minister, Ambassador Ali Youssef Ahmed al-Sharif, as part of a cabinet reshuffle that also included changes in three other ministries including culture and information, religious affairs, and trade.
Regional Situation (per 4 November)
- The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have banned the transportation of key Sudanese export goods including gum arabic, peanuts, cooking oil, and gold to be moved through the areas controlled by the RSF to Egypt. The RSF has accused Egypt of backing the SAF and contributing to civilian casualties.
- Somali Minister of Defence, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, has stated that Ethiopia should be focusing its attention to internal security challenges before considering the external affairs of Somalia.
- The Ethiopian embassy in Mogadishu, Somalia, should be moved from the presidential palace to its previous location which is currently vacant, confirmed Somali Foreign Minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, in a response to the public demanding the embassy be relocated from the current location.
- The announcement comes after Somalia declared an Ethiopian diplomat persona non grata last week.
- Kithure Kindiki was sworn in as the new Deputy President of Kenya on Friday, after the Kenyan Parliament impeached his predecessor Rigathi Gachagua accusing him of violating the constitution.
International Situation (per 4 November)
- Sudan has terminated a $6 billion agreement with the UAE to develop a Red Sea port, due to UAE’s alleged support to the RSF, stated Sudan’s Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim.
- The project, which was set to involve the construction and operation of the Abu Amama port, is now off the table, with Ibrahim asserting that Sudan will not grant the UAE any access to its Red Sea coast.
- The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, condemned recent attacks on civilian population in Sudan’s Al-Jazira state which resulted in the killing of more than 120 people.
- Great Britain, which holds the presidency of the UN Security Council (SC), will push for adoption of a resolution on Sudan in November. The UN SC is scheduled to discuss the situation on 12 November.
- Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, called on the Ethiopian federal government to ensure the full implementation of the CoH agreement on the occasion of its second anniversary.
- Blinken stated it is important “to accelerate actions to facilitate the voluntary return of all people displaced by the conflict, arrange the full withdrawal of non-Ethiopian National Defense Forces from Tigray, and demonstrate an ongoing commitment to victim-centric transitional justice”.
Links of interest
Three Volumes on Tigray War (2020-2022) published in Advance of Commemoration
New three volume study of Tigray war reveals Israeli mediation in events leading to the conflict
Volume 1: “Tigray. The Hysteresis of War”
Volume 2: “Tigray. The Panarchy of War”
Volume 3: “Tigray. War in a Digital Black Hole”
Tigray Interim Administration Urges Full Implementation of Pretoria Agreement on Second Anniversary
Residents in Ethiopia’s Oromia region report network disruptions as government forces fight rebels
Over 45 killed in Oromia’s North Shewa zone, including Wacale district administrator
PM Abiy announces ongoing talks with armed groups operating in Amhara, Oromia regions
Sudan’s Burhan reshuffles cabinet, appoints new foreign minister
RSF impose trade embargo on Egypt
Somalia’s Defense Minister Says Ethiopia’s Security Situation ‘Out of Control'”
Somalia to relocate Ethiopian embassy from presidential palace
Kenya court paves way for new deputy president
Sudan scraps $6 billion UAE port deal, citing RSF support
UN chief condemns Sudan’s RSF, Britain to push for Security Council action
Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.