Situation report: Attacks in El Fasher kill civilians and hit hospital; South Sudan’s Tamaini talks halted until mid-January; Erdogan offers mediation between Sudan and UAE

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peacebuilding, refugee protection, and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to the movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of universities, research organisations, civil society, and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and across Africa. The Situation Reports can be found here. To receive the situation report in your e-mail, click here. You can unsubscribe at any moment through the link at the bottom of each e-mail.

Situation in Sudan (per 16 December)

  • At least 38 people have died in an attack by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with explosive missiles in the centre of El Fasher, North Darfur, on Sunday, says the local resistance committee. 
  • This follows a drone attack on the Saudi Hospital in El Fasher on Friday, in which nine people were killed. The attack forced the hospital’s operations to stop.
  • A leaked internal report from Sudan’s Islamic Movement reveals that it has infiltrated the civilian militias (known as the Popular Resistance Forces, PRF) fighting alongside the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).
  • According to the report, the Movement has mobilised over 650,000 people, of which over 70,000 are actively involved in combat. According to the report seen by Sudan Tribune, the Islamic Movement aims to use the PRF activities to secure a new future for the Movement.
  • SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visited Jabel Al-Ghar, where he spoke to the troops on Sunday. He stated that 30 mobile units stand ready to retake Khartoum and Al Jazirah State from RSF, adding that there would be no negotiations with RSF.
  • RSF forces and allied militia have raped “scores of women and girls” in South Kordofan, states Human Rights Watch (HRW). This includes cases of sexual slavery.
  • Most of the documented incidents were gang rapes. The perpetrators were identified by their RSF or allied militia uniform, and some of the perpetrators were known by the victims.
  • One woman who was gang raped described how her son and husband were killed trying to defend her.
  • Residents of neighbourhoods in the East Nile area of Khartoum Bahri have been called to evacuate amid ongoing clashes between SAF and RSF. SAF took control of the al-Sambab area in north Khartoum Bahri on Thursday and Friday, and is pushing ahead.
  • The death toll of attacks on the Zamzam camp for displaced people in North Darfur has risen to 73. The camp has been under fire since 1 December. There is a severe shortage of medical supplies in the camp.
  • RSF forces claimed that the attacks were due to the presence of SAF fighters in the camp, which the camp residents deny. 

Situation in South Sudan (per 16 December)

  • The Tamaini peace talks between the South Sudanese government delegation and the opposition groups in Nairobi have reached a deadlock, according to the opposition. The opposition accuses the government delegation of wanting to renegotiate the Tumaini consensus.
  • The government delegation states that the talks have not collapsed, but that they are taking a break to consult with the leadership in Juba.
  • Deputy chief mediator Ambassador Mohamed Guyo announced that the peace talks will resume mid-January 2025. Amb. Guyo maintains that significant progress has been made.
  • Sudanese President Salva Kiir removed the Chief of Defence Force Gen. Santino Deng Wol and replaced him with Gen. Paul Nang Majok. He also removed the Inspector General of Police Gen. Atem Marol, replacing him with Gen. Abraham Manyuat.
  • The removals follow earlier high-level overhauls, including removal of spy chief Gen. Akol Koor.
  • Authorities in Pibor report that villages in Gumruk County have been under attack since Friday. The authorities blame youth from Jonglei, but this is denied by Jonglei authorities. There is no news yet about potential casualties.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 16 December)

  • The  majority of political violence events in Ethiopia in 2024 took place in Amhara and Oromia, states ACLED in a new overview. 57% of events took place in Amhara, and 34% in Oromia. 72% of the events were battles. 
  • 5,701 fatalities were reported in Amhara, and 3,245 fatalities were reported in Oromia. Most violence against civilians was recorded in the West Gojjam and North Shewa zones of Amhara.
  • Ongoing political instability in Tigray has led to an increase in human trafficking and irregular migration, states the Tigray Youth Association (TYA). It warns that the Tigray war has left a power vacuum in which criminal organisations can act with impunity and exploit vulnerable people.
  • 6,000 deaths have been reported in the past 15 months among the youth who have left Ethiopia.
  • 40% of youth in Tigray expressed an interest to migrate, according to a study by TYA and the German embassy in Addis Ababa. 53% of youths between 29 and 35 are already displaced in the region.

Regional Situation (per 16 December)

  • A conference on Eritrean diaspora investments in Uganda is taking place on 21 December 2024 in Kampala. The event will be attended by Eritrea’s Ambassador to Uganda, Mohammed Sulieman Ahmed, and Ugandan Prime Minister, Robinah Nabbanja.

International Situation (per 16 December)

  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered to mediate in the tensions between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates in a phone call with Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan on Friday.
  • Erdogan also announced that he will visit Ethiopia and Somalia within the first two months of 2025, following Erdogan’s brokering of a deal to resolve the tensions between the countries.
  • The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan emphasised the need for accountability and justice for the victims of human rights abuses in South Sudan, 11 years since the outbreak of the civil war.
  • The Commission states that the impunity for crimes is fuelling a cycle of violence. The Commission calls for a comprehensive transitional justice programme. 
  • The World Health Organization urges for protection of health facilities and professionals following the attack on a hospital in El Fasher, Darfur. 
  • The UN Security Council has extended sanctions against al-Shabaab for two months until the end of February 2025, which allows more time to coordinate the response to al-Shabaab in Somalia.

Links of interest

At least 38 killed in drone attack on Sudan’s el-Fasher: Activists

Leaked report reveals Islamist infiltration of Sudan’s Popular Resistance Forces

Sudan’s Burhan says 30 units ready to retake Al-Jazirah, Khartoum

Sudan: Fighters Rape Women and Girls, Hold Sex Slaves

Khartoum Bahri residents evacuated amid ongoing clashes

73 killed in artillery attacks on Zamzam camp

SSOMA says Tumaini peace initiative at deadlock

Ambassador Guyo: Tumaini peace talks to resume in January 2025

Kiir removes CDF Deng, IGP Marol in major security reshuffle

Pibor reports White Army attacks on villages in Gumruk, Jonglei; denies involvement

Unrest in Amhara and Oromia threatens Ethiopia’s stability

Political instability compounds human trafficking, illegal migration in Tigray

Over 300 Eritrean Investors Set for Second Diaspora Conference in Kampala

Sudan War: Turkey President Erdogan Offers To Mediate Between Sudan And UAE

Erdogan to visit Ethiopia, Somalia in early 2025 after brokering deal

The Unrelenting Cycle of Violence in South Sudan

9 dead in attack on Sudan hospital, WHO says

UN extends Al-Shabaab sanctions in Somalia, paves way for new stabilisation mission

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.