Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peacebuilding, refugee protection, and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to the movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of universities, research organisations, civil society, and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and across Africa. The Situation Reports can be found here. To receive the situation report in your e-mail, click here. You can unsubscribe at any moment through the link at the bottom of each e-mail.
Situation in Ethiopia and Tigray (per 1 October)
- Explosions were heard in Addis Ababa, including the area near the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) headquarters, last night between 12:30am and 1:15am, according to diplomatic and local sources. Neither the federal government nor ENDF have responded to the claims.
- An indefinite ban on all drone flights over Addis Ababa was imposed by Ethiopia’s National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) on 30 September. Authorities warn unauthorised drones will be electronically disrupted or captured, while operators could be located, detained and prosecuted.
- Eritrean forces are directly participating in the fighting in Afar region, aiming to cut the strategic road connecting Djibouti and Eritrea, said the Governor of Afar to Al Jazeera, further alleging that Eritrean forces controlled two-thirds of the region. Eritrea has not yet responded to these reports.
- Brigade N’hamedu, an opposition movement to the Eritrean regime, has condemned Eritrea’s participation in the fighting in Afar and the supplying of weapons and support to the Alliance for Survival group.
- Heavy drone strikes were recorded on Tuesday in Maychew town, specifically around Kuteba, also known as Edaga Kedam locality.
- An airstrike was reported from Axum on Wednesday morning, causing students to leave schools.
- Residents in Axum report that network and internet service have been working with interruptions on Wednesday evening.
- Drones have been heard operating around Axum extensively. The city has been almost completely quiet, with very little movement. People are praying and conducting religious vigils at St. Mary of Zion church.
- Wounded TPLF fighters from Awash Camp in Mekelle have been taken to Axum. Newly wounded fighters are being admitted to Axum Referral Hospital. However, due to the lack of resources, some of the local residents are providing and supporting the wounded as much as they can.
- At least 52 people were killed in Alamata as a result of heavy fighting between 26 and 29 September. The number of wounded is unknown.
- 420 wounded people were received in Korem and Alamata hospitals between 22 and 25 September, while 300 people were admitted at Suhul hospital in Shire, reports Médecins Sans Frontières.
- 161 people were evacuated by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) from Mekelle, Tigray, to Semera in Afar on 28 September. The group included Ethiopian Federal Police members and their families, Ethiopian Airlines members, African Union observers and Civil Aviation Security members.
- An estimated 150,000 people are displaced in the Afar region due to intensified fighting, according to humanitarian sources, while the exact numbers are difficult to estimate.
- A school sustained damage from the airstrike targeting TigrayTV, leading to school closure on 28 September.
- Ethnic Tigrayan and Amhara people who work at the Bishoftu Air Force base are being arrested by the federal government, following strikes on 26 and 27 September.
- Axum residents report hearing propaganda saying, “We are advancing toward Addis Ababa”, which is mainly spread by TPLF-affiliated individuals through local networks and social media.
- Flights to Kombolcha airport, Amhara, resumed on Monday, according to residents, while flights to and from Lalibela remain suspended.
Migration and refugee situation (per 1 October)
- Over 55,000 Sudanese refugees have entered Chad in 2026, with a total of 400 people crossing the border each day over the past week.
- Over 117 million people are facing forced displacement worldwide, with Sudan alone representing the world’s largest displacement crisis, and Yemen’s refugee population rapidly growing, according to a statement by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Barham Salih, to the UN Security Council.
- UNHCR warns that budget cuts to support organizations and national protection systems are threatening to leave 8.3 million refugees and displaced people globally without access to life-saving resources in 2026.
- In the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya, the World Food Programme (WFP) is using cash transfers in order to supplement food supplies, as funding cuts have led to a reduction in physical food distribution.
- Djibouti’s foreign minister made an appeal to the UN General Assembly for international assistance in managing the significant influx of thousands of refugees arriving from Yemen into the country.
- Facing severe aid cuts, refugees in Uganda’s Nakivale and Kiryandogo settlements are transitioning from emergency relief to long-term self-reliance through farming and local trades, thanks to a program led by CARE.
- Sudan has agreed to maintain the Adre border crossing with Chad as a designated humanitarian aid entry point, extending the mandate until the end of December 2026, in order to facilitate international relief operations in response to the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
Regional and international situation (per 1 October)
- Six US senators urged the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to engage with the Ethiopian federal government and all warring parties to engage in peaceful resolution of the conflict.
- Pope Leo XIV has urged all parties in the fighting across Ethiopia to end armed confrontation, and resume dialogue which is the only way to achieve lasting peace.
- Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, travelled to Kenya for the launch of a planned $16 billion oil refinery at Kenya’s Lamu port.
- Sudan’s Foreign Minister, Mohieddin Salim, called for international pressure on neighbouring states that provide support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) through weapons and soldiers at the UN General Assembly.
Links of interest
Explosions heard in Ethiopia’s capital as war waged in north
News: Overnight explosions reported in Addis Abeba amid northern Ethiopia fighting
Fighting in Ethiopia intensifies: What’s the latest?
ቀይ መስቀል የአየር መንገድ ሠራተኞች እና የአፍሪካ ኅብረት ታዛቢዎችን ጨምሮ 161 ሰዎችን ከትግራይ ማስወጣቱን አስታወቀ
ተቋርጦ የነበረው የኮምቦልቻ በረራ ቢጀመርም በላሊበላ በረራ አለመኖሩን ነዋሪዎች ገለጹ
More than 55,000 Sudanese refugees flee to Chad as UN calls for funding
Funding cuts put 8.3 million refugees at risk of losing vital assistance
Kenya: From survival to choice – how cash assistance helps refugees in Dadaab
Djibouti urges world to help as Yemen war drives refugee influx
Refugees in Uganda are turning food assistance into farms, trades, and savings
Sudan extends Adre border crossing with Chad for humanitarian aid for 3 months
Sudan demands UN action against RSF foreign backers
Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.