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Situation in Ethiopia (per 12 October)
- Ethiopia National Defence Forces (ENDF) and Tigray Peace Forces (TPF) entered Adwa on 11 October.
- The Bure, Denakil, Garbo and Awala areas in the Afar region are now considered active combat zones between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. These clashes involve infantry, heavy weapons and aircrafts.
- ENDF and TPF troops are moving closer to the Eritrean border, having captured the towns of Adi Hayelom, Seyemti Adiyabo and Adi Nebrid.
- Eritrean forces withdrew from Adigrat on 7 October, with ENDF drone strikes targeting withdrawing vehicles. The ENDF and TPF took control of Adigrat between 9 and 10 October.
- ENDF forces took control of Shire town, northwest Tigray, and of Atsibi and Freweyni, eastern Tigray, on 9 October.
- ENDF took control of Idaga Hamus town, Hawzen town and Abiy Adi, northern Tigray, on 9 October.
- TPF is allegedly seizing people’s vehicles by force, according to a source in Mekelle.
- ENDF fighters are entering and occupying school buildings in Wukro, Tigray, according to a resident on 11 October.
- Schools in Egela and Ahza in Tigray were hit and destroyed by drone strikes on 11 October. The responsible party has not yet been identified.
- Two drone strikes hit Chila, Tigray, killing a child and injuring several civilians, on 10 October.
- Tigrayan activist Amanuel Yibrah has reportedly been detained in Addis Ababa for two weeks and charged with terrorism for allegedly sending messages to military generals and groups believed to be terrorist organizations by the Ethiopian federal government.
- Getachew Reda has been re-appointed as adviser on East African affairs by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on 10 October. He returned to Mekelle on 11 October.
- Getachew stated that Tigray will be under a federal command post for six months, with elections run by the national election board (NEBE). ENDF and TPF are expected to provide security and members of the Tigray People LIbration Front (TPLF) not involved in crimes to take part in recovery programmes.
- Three cargo aircrafts have allegedly been seen at Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa, carrying weapons coming from the UAE.
- Five senior TPLF officers surrendered to the TPF at Memen, Tigray, according to TPF social media, including Colonel Berhane Gebreananya, Deputy Army Commander, Colonel Weldai Mawucha, Army Logistics Chief and Colonel Gebremariam Teklu, Commander of the Second Corps.
- Tigray has been classified as Phase 3 crisis-level conditions of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. The food insecurity is primarily due to conflict and rainfall deficits.
- Ethiopian Airlines resumed passenger flights between Addis Ababa and Mekelle on 11 October.
- Ethiopia’s intelligence chief Redwan Hussein travelled to Mekelle following the resumption of flights.
- Munitions, drones and equipment were seized in Mekelle around 7-8 October from a bunker which was a former ENDF facility close to Mekelle’s Airport.
- Two young men were killed in Mekelle on 8 October by ENDF troops, according to a resident. The reasons for the killing still remain unclear.
Situation in Sudan (per 12 October)
- At least 200 people were killed in air strikes on gold mining sites in the Shamal al-Wadi area, near the border between Sudan and Egypt on 10 October.
- At least 30 internally displaced people were killed and many more were wounded in a drone attack by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Wad al-Mahi province in the Blue Nile region on 9 October.
- The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) claimed to have shot down a drone near the Wad al-Mahi area in Blue Nile State on 12 October. The drone had allegedly crossed the border from Ethiopia.
- A total of 1,852 people have died from acute malnutrition, with many more affected by it, in the Jebel Marra, Tawila, and Ain Siro regions of North Darfur, due to a shortage of healthcare facilities and supplies of basic necessities.
- Six civilians were injured and homes and vehicles were damaged by a wave of drone strikes operated by the RSF on El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, on 9 October.
- The UN Security Council extended the arms embargo on the Darfur region by two months. An arms embargo on the entire country did not pass due to opposition by Russia and China.
Regional and international situation (per 12 October)
- ENDF troops crossed into Eritrea on 11 October, according to unverified reports, taking control of Daba Sima, a village in the Southern Denkalya subregion of Eritrea.
- Eritrean prisoners from several facilities, including Adi Abeyto prison, have been released and conscripted into military service, according to an internal source.
- All Eritrean government employees have reportedly been issued firearms, according to the same internal source.
- The Ethiopian Foreign Minister has written a letter to the United Nations Security Council accusing Eritrea of invading Ethiopian territory, claiming that Eritrean troops have advanced 60 kilometers into the Tigray region.
- Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh sent a letter to the UN Security Council in response, affirming that the claims of an Eritrean invasion were merely an attempt by Ethiopia to justify a war of aggression, and urging the UN to intervene.
- Somalia declared its neutrality in the escalation between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
- 71 people were killed in Rumbek on 9 October, in South Sudan’s Lakes State, when attackers briefly took control of the town before government forces arrived and forced the fighters to withdraw.
Links of interest
Ethiopia’s Abiy Reappoints Getachew Reda as Adviser
Ethiopian Airlines to Resume Mekelle Flights on October 11 After Three-Week Suspension
Ethiopia intel chief visits flashpoint Tigray region
Air strikes kill at least 200 at gold mine near Sudan-Egypt border, survivors say
Drone strike kills 30 people in Sudan’s Blue Nile region
Acute malnutrition claims over 1,800 lives in Sudan’s Jebel Marra, civil authority says
Six civilians injured in drone attack on Sudan’s El Obeid, military sources say
UN extends Darfur arms embargo, blocks broader Sudan sanctions proposal
Sudanese army says it shot down drone that crossed from Ethiopia
Eritrea urges UN to intervene in standoff with Ethiopia
Somalia declares neutrality as Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions escalate
Intercommunal clashes kill 71 people in South Sudan
Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.