Situation Report: Attack on El-Fasher, North Darfur, appears imminent; South Sudan receives massive UAE loan in exchange for oil; Ethiopia short on foreign currencies

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Situation in Sudan (per 29 April)

  • An attack on El-Fasher in North Darfur, the only Darfur capital not in the hands of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), appears to be imminent.
  • RSF is encircling the city, while SAF forces seem to be getting in position. The UN warns that an attack would have devastating consequences for the 800.000 inhabitants of El-Fasher. Civilians are afraid to be killed if they attempt to flee.
  • RSF started advancing on El-Fasher on 14 April, states the UN human rights office. The city is currently cut off from humanitarian supplies. 
  • At least 43 civilians have died in fights around El-Fasher between SAF and RSF and respective allied militia since 14 April. 
  • An air attack with barrel bombs near Melit town in North Darfur killed at least seven shepherds and hundreds of camels. The attack took place at night.
  • The air attack was reportedly perpetrated by the SAF, after the RSF had taken control of Melit.

Situation in South Sudan (per 29 April)

  • A company from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) run by a distant relative of the royal family made an agreement to loan 12 million euros to South Sudan in exchange for repayment in oil. This constitutes almost double the GDP of South Sudan.
  • A report by investigators for the United Nations Security Council states that the deal will tie up most of South Sudan’s oil revenues for the coming years. South Sudan will sell the oil under a discounted price under the agreement, receiving about $10 less per barrel than the international benchmark. 
  • Kenya announced it will host a mediation in Nairobi between South Sudan’s government and opposition groups in the coming days. 
  • Humanitarian partners in South Sudan are urging the government to remove a series of new taxes and charges at border crossings that were implemented in February 2024.
  • The UN states that the increase in fuel prices caused by the taxes has impacted 60.000 people so far, as it has been forced to pause air-drops of food assistance. The number of people impacted may grow to 145.000 by the end of May if the measures remain in place. 

Situation in Ethiopia (per 29 April)

  • The Ethiopian government is facing an acute shortage of foreign currencies, sources state. The Council of Ministers is reportedly discussing tax incentives for Ethiopian exporters in certain sectors, but observers doubt that this measure would be effective in the short term.
  • The Council is also said to be discussing a change in legislation for Foreign Direct Investment that would lead to liberalisation of investment conditions in certain sectors. 
  • Several administrations in southern Ethiopia complain that government employees have not received their full salaries since January of this year. 
  • Schools in Wolayta zone have had to close because teachers were looking for other sources of income.
  • Clashes between Afar and Somali-Issa communities in the Somali region renewed since the period between February and April, states UNOCHA, displacing thousands of people.
  • Sudanese, Eritrean and Ethiopian refugees in Kumer and Awlala in the Amhara region protested against the insecure circumstances in the refugee camps last week. The protests were held after a young refugee was shot in the head by an Ethiopian armed robber. 
  • The refugee survived, but was in critical condition.
  • The refugees want to be evacuated to a more secure site, as the refugees are frequently attacked by armed robbers and are facing dire humanitarian conditions. 
  • 18.000 people reportedly fled from attacks by armed groups in Kewot, Efratana Gidim, and Antsokia districts of the NorthShewa Zone. 2.000 livestock were reportedly looted, and 290 houses burnt. 

Situation in Somalia (per 29 April)

  • Several officers of a US-trained Somali commando unit have been arrested and detained in Somalia over suspected ration stealing. 
  • Flash floods in Somalia are threatening the lives and livelihoods of people in flood-prone areas. Flash floods have been reported since 19 April, with four people reportedly killed. 
  • Very heavy rains are projected in the Bay, Sool and Sanaag regions. 
  • Dozens of deaths have been reported due to heavy flooding in Kenya and  Tanzania as well. 

International Situation (per 29 April)

  • The UN Security Council calls for the de-escalation of the situation in El-Fasher and a halt to the military build-up by the RSF. It also called on member states to refrain from any external interferences that enhance conflict, and instead focus on peace building. 
  • The UN Security Council is holding a private meeting today in relation to the situation in Sudan. This comes as UN officials have raised the alarm over the situation in El-Fasher.
  • The UNSC will also discuss a formal complaint lodged by Sudan against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), alleging acts of aggression, according to the Sudan Tribune. 
  • The Chair of the African Union Commission expressed concern over renewed hostilities between Amhara and Tigray forces in Western Tigray.
  • The UN Secretary General’s envoy to Sudan, Ramtane Lamamra, visited Asmara, Eritrea, last week to meet with Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki. 
  • A joint statement by Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten together with Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator Joyce Msuya calls for more international engagement to stop sexual violence in Sudan. 
  • “These barbaric acts, which echo the horrors witnessed in Darfur two decades ago, must spur immediate action,” they state. 

Links of interest
UN warns Sudan paramilitary forces are encircling a capital in western Darfur, urges against attack
Hundreds of camels killed in North Darfur attack
A Dubai Firm Pledged $13 Billion for 20 Years of South Sudan Oil
Kenya to hold South Sudan mediation in coming day
South Sudan: Humanitarian partners call for removal of new import taxes
Ethiopia – Situation Report, 26 Apr 2024
Desperate Sudanese refugees in Amhara demand evacuation to a safer area
Somalia detains U.S.-trained commandos over theft of rations
Somalia: 2024 Gu Season Heavy Rains and Floods – Flash Update No. 1 (as of 22 April 2024)
Scores dead in Tanzania and Kenya as heavy rains pound East Africa
Sudan: Security Council members call for immediate halt to military escalation in El Fasher
Sudan: Private Meeting
UN Security Council to discuss Sudan’s complaint of UAE backing RSF
AU alarmed by renewed conflict on Tigray-Amhara borders
Yemane G. Meskel on X
Sudan: UN leaders call for urgent action against scourge of sexual violence amid ongoing conflict

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