Situation report: mobilisation around El Obeid sparks concern; Ethiopia's election results announced; US visa restrictions against TPLF hardliners.

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peacebuilding, refugee protection, and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to the movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of universities, research organisations, civil society, and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and across Africa. The Situation Reports can be found here. To receive the situation report in your e-mail, click here. You can unsubscribe at any moment through the link at the bottom of each e-mail.

Situation in Sudan (per 22 June)

A drone strike launched by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) targeting a fuel station in Kosti, White Nile State, has killed one person and injured 14 others on 21 June.
An air strike targeted the RSF headquarters and a warehouse in the the vicinity of Nyala International Airport in South Darfur on 18 and 19 June.
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched drone strikes on 20 June targeting positions and movements of RSF troops in North Kordofan State, specifically near Um Samima and Abu Gaoud, and in the area of Hamrat al-Sheikh, Jabrat al-Sheikh, Sodari, and Um Badr.
The RSF launched drone strikes on El Obeid on 19 June, targeting several locations across the cities, including on the main power transformer, knocking out the power in the entire city.
RSF drone strikes killed nine people in the Malha and Um Baru localities, in North Darfur state, on 19 June.
Leaders in Eastern Sudan have warned of rising tribal polarisation, with media and social discourse inflaming polarisation. The situation is especially volatile due to increased weaponisation of the area.
A state security committee has ordered the removal of military presences and a ban on carrying weapons in public in Khartoum. Checkpoints have been set up to enforce this, due to a continued presence of armed, army-allied groups and ongoing shootings.
Civil Society activists have warned of a worsening humanitarian crisis in the Blue Nile Region as the rainy season begins, whilst there are already shortages of food, medicine, drinking water and shelter.
Sudan’s humanitarian crisis faces a 72% funding deficit, according to UNHCR.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 22 June)

The Prosperity Party secured 438 out of 486 seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives according to the election results released by the National Elections Board (NEBE) on 21 June.
Forced conscription is ongoing in Tigray, with the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) organising road blockades and raids to forcefully take young people to military training camps.
The mobilisation includes former Tigray forces members, as well as new mobilisation of (underage) youths to training camps.
Whilst in the previous conflict, many young people signed up voluntarily to fight in the war, this time, many people are disillusioned, feeling that war only benefits people at the top.
Gold mining in Tigray is now primarily controlled by the military and foreign investors. It has led to illicit profiteering by military-linked actors, mercury and cyanide pollution downstream, displacement, and mounting fears of renewed war fueled by gold revenues.
Ethiopia seems to be on the brink of war, as crises in its conflict regions escalate, as well as complicated dynamics in the regions, with the Sudan crisis increasing arms flow in Eritrea and weakening border governance.
Ethiopia is threatened by the militarisation of the Western frontier, strengthened relations between Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia, blocking Ethiopia’s potential access to the Red Sea, and resentments from the SAF over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

International and regional situation (per 22 June)

The United States (US) has imposed visa restrictions on “hardline members” of the TPLF, as well as their family members. The visa restrictions target individuals who undermine resolutions to the crisis in Tigray.
Eritrea seeks to end the Special Rapporteur’s mandate, and shift focus to the Human Rights Council (HRC) capacity building framework, favouring technical assistance over investigative or accountability mechanisms.
Since 2016, Eritrea has engaged in capacity building initiatives, creating limited openings for dialogue, reporting support, and institutional engagement. However, cooperation remains uneven, with Eritrea continuing to restrict access limiting credible external assessment.
Despite capacity building progress, Eritrea has not sufficiently addressed serious human rights violations.
Israel is looking into establishing a naval presence at the port of Berbera in Somaliland, enabling monitoring of activities in Yemen and Iran, as well as its gas platforms and key sea lanes in the Mediterranean sea.
United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, and UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, have issued an urgent warning of impending atrocities in El Obeid, in North Kordofan state, as troops prepare for an assault on the city.
A coalition of 29 nations issued a warning at the UN Human Rights Council on 18 June that around 500,000 civilians are at risk of large-scale atrocities in El Obeid, highlighting reports of ethnically targeted violence, including sexual and gender-based violence, in the region.
The coalition urges the RSF to cease their assault on El Obeid and for both sides to comply with international humanitarian law, demanding that civilians be allowed to leave conflict zones freely and safely.
Over 40 Sudanese male refugees in Chad are being detained by authorities without charge or access to communication. Most of the detained men are from West Darfur and were arrested under similar circumstances in May.
On Sudan–Egypt’s border, an airstrike and possible ground incursion by Egyptian forces against Sudanese miners in Sudan’s Red Sea State (Jabal al-Ayqad) killed and injured dozens and left many missing on 16 June.
In response, Sudanese officials have urged high-level state-to-state action via official channels and called for an urgent transparent independent investigation.