Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peacebuilding, refugee protection, and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to the movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of universities, research organisations, civil society, and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and across Africa. The Situation Reports can be found here. To receive the situation report in your e-mail, click here. You can unsubscribe at any moment through the link at the bottom of each e-mail.
Situation in Sudan (per 10 November)
- Eyewitnesses and survivors have reported on an estimated 50,000 people trapped in El Fasher, North Darfur, by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) across five locations, being cut off from communication as the RSF have captured starlink devices and mobile phones.
- The escapees have reported on extensive raids, and kidnapping for ransom ranging from 5 million to 100 million Sudanese Pounds. Many are trying to identify family members through videos of mass killings filmed by the RSF fighters.
- The Sudan Doctors Network have accused the RSF of disposing of hundreds of bodies in a “desperate attempt” to cover up evidence of mass killings.
- The closing of a critical exit point and three sites of possible mass burning and burying of bodies have been identified through satellite imagery by The Humanitarian Research Lab of the Yale School of Public Health.
- An estimated 7,000 people have fled El Fasher between 5 – 8 November, bringing the total of displaced people to an estimated 89,000 since 26 October, with approximately 260,000 people residing in El Fasher prior to its capture by the RSF.
- Several persons were killed and injured as the RSF and allied Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) bombed neighbourhoods in the city of Dilling in Sudan’s South Kordofan state on Friday.
- The UN warned on Friday that there are clear preparations for increased hostilities in Kordofan.
- An estimated 175,000 people have reportedly fled to El Obeid, North Kordofan, in the past month from across the Kordofan region, according to Humanitarian Aid Commissioner Salwa Adam Benia.
- The RSF announced on Thursday that they agree to the three-month humanitarian truce proposed by the Quad (the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt). There has not yet been a response from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).
- The Islamic State issued a second call for jihad in Sudan, and called on foreign fighters, especially from Egypt and Libya, to exploit the turbulence in Sudan, stating that there is opportunity for a profound impact on the region.
- Drone strikes and explosions have been reported in Khartoum on Friday near a military base and a power station.
Situation in South Sudan (per 10 November)
- Food assistance needs in South Sudan remain extremely high as the harvest season started in October, states the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. 55-60% of the population is in need of assistance.
- Conflict, flood, economic shocks, and the high number of returnees are key drivers. The situations in Nasir (Upper Nile) and Fangak (Jonglei) are of highest concern, where some populations are experiencing famine conditions.
Situation in Ethiopia (per 10 November)
- An exchange of fire took place in Tigray between the Hara Meret troops, who support former Tigray Interim Administration President Getachew Reda, and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), allied to the current Tigray Interim Administration, on 3 and 4 November.
- Hara Meret troops advanced into southern Tigray, coming close to the town of Inda Mokoni. The Hara Meret troops withdrew into the Afar region. The TDF followed them and shelled areas of Afar, occupying the areas where the Hara Meret troops had been camped.
- A drone attack was launched on TDF troops in the Afar region on Saturday morning, resulting in an unknown number of casualties. Most of the TDF soldiers have reportedly now withdrawn from the Afar region.
- The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) accused the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) of launching the drone strike, calling it a violation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA).
- The Afar administration condemned the “acts of terror” of which it accused the TPLF. They also accused the TPLF of violating the Pretoria CoHA.
- Fear of war has increased among the population in Tigray, although the events of last week are generally not seen as a turning point.
- A new report by The Commission of Inquiry on Tigray Genocide estimates the total damage to Tigray’s natural resources resulting the war between 2020-2022 at 46.57 billion USD.
- The majority of the damages were inflicted by the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), and Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF). Damages included deliberate acts of destruction, and has left deeply rooted consequences on the livelihood of communities.
Regional & International Situation (per 10 November)
- The United Kingdom rejected atrocity prevention plans for Sudan, as it chose the least ambitious option out of four presented in an internal government paper seen by The Guardian. This was done due to resource constraints.
- The decision was taken despite the imminent fall of El Fasher in North Darfur, including warnings of ethnic cleansing and possible genocide.
- The African Commission on Human and People’s Rights ruled that Ethiopia violated several provisions in the African Charter in the Gilgel Gibe III dam and Kuraz sugar projects.
- It failed to adequately assess environmental and social consequences, and did not obtain free, prior and informed consent from the communities affected by the project in the Lower Omo Valley.
- The South Sudanese embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, was closed on Friday due to the South Sudanese government not paying the rent.
- An EU vessel was attacked by pirates off the coast of Somalia on Thursday. The pirates fled after special forces boarded the ship, and all 24 crew were found safe.
Links of interest
Witnesses: RSF holds 50,000 civilians in El Fasher, burns bodies
Sudan medics accuse RSF of burning, burying bodies to conceal ‘genocide’
ATROCITY ALERT RSF Closed Berm Exit and Ongoing Body Disposal Operations in El-Fasher
DTM Sudan Flash Alert: Al Fasher (Al Fasher town), North Darfur
Several killed, injured in renewed RSF shelling on Sudan’s South Kordofan
Sudan: Türk fears more atrocities in Darfur, warns Kordofan could be next
Thousands flee North Darfur, North Kordofan amid RSF attacks, says Sudanese commissioner
RSF agrees to Quad-proposed humanitarian truce
Islamic State redoubles call for jihad in Sudan, urges foreign fighters to migrate
Sudan capital hit by drone attacks a day after RSF agrees to truce – reports
Ethiopia Accused of Drone Attacks in Tigray
UK rejected atrocity prevention plans for Sudan despite warning of possible genocide
African Commission Faults Ethiopia over Indigenous Rights Violations in Lower Omo Projects
South Sudan’s Nairobi embassy closes due to unpaid rent
European Union vessel reaches ship raided by pirates off Somalia; all 24 crew on board safe
Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.